In these situations, everyone grasps for “why!?”, but as I remind our followers regularly, if you follow PRICE action, “WHY” does not matter, RISK is what matters. If you go back and watch all of my previous analysis videos, I have been warning against the high risk and low probability for those insisting on taking trades between 55K and 60K. Don’t listen to people, listen to PRICE.
And again I have to point out, all through the Bitcoin consolidation and Ethereum new high after new high herd mentality event, who was calling for Bitcoin to test 46K? When Bitcoin was at 60K, once again, the “authorities”, “experts” and “gurus” were all calling for higher prices. Either that or hyping some overpriced alt coin. LISTEN to PRICE and focus on RISK.
As of now, Bitcoin is showing a candle tail off of the 45950 AREA, which is a sign that buying activity came in around the 46K to 48K area. I have been talking about the 50K to 48K major support for weeks, and WAITING to see if Bitcoin would offer such an opportunity.
NOW we have a much more attractive level for swing trades BUT stepping into a market that has yet to prove stability is still not a good idea. The bearish momentum from the large red candle that started in the 55K area may still be in play. This is why we now have to WAIT for price stability in order to prove that the broader bullish trend and range low support are both still intact. One candle which hasn’t even closed yet is NOT enough information.
For the next couple of days, I want to see a bullish reversal candle develop between 48K and 50K. OR even better, I want to see a retest of 45K, followed by another bullish reversal (double bottom). In those instances, I will be able to clearly define risk, while reward potential is much more favorable at these levels compared to 55K or 60K. PATIENCE is key.
Keep in mind, high probability / low risk opportunities are infrequent and not easily recognizable. While the low probability, high risk opportunities are usually everywhere and look obvious (like ETH pushing high after high without a pullback). It took almost two months for this opportunity to develop, so NOW is the time to be looking for confirmation. This is what we WAIT so patiently for, but even now, price needs to prove itself further before we can justify taking a new risk.
If you would like to know more about our swing trade strategy, check it out here.