Last week, see here, I showed the Bullish Elliott Waves (EWP) option for Bitcoin (BTC), looking for a rally to initially mid-$40Ks (its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)) before a multi-week pullback should happen. In finer detail, I had placed a wave-iv of wave-1 label at around the August 3 low of $37718, expecting a wave-v of 1 higher to commence soon. Bitcoin bottomed a daily later at $37526 and is now trading at $46.5K. Thus, so far, so good.
Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
A break below Monday’s low at $42818 is the Bulls’ first warning
Last week I found, “Because one can always find a bullish or bearish data point to support one’s biased view, it is the weight of the evidence approach that allows for a much more objective interpretation. In this case, it is rather apparent the weight of the evidence is predominantly bullish. All BTC now needs to do is reclaim its 200d SMA.” Thus, my objective analyses, which my premium crypto trading members bank on, pointed in the right direction, and Bitcoin has now reclaimed its 200d SMA.
Given that the daily chart is still Bullish
- price is above all its SMAs and those are rising.
- Note the four green arrows at the upper left corner of the chart. It’s called “the traffic light,” and it means “GO” when it is green.
- And the currency is above its Ichimoku cloud as well,
A possible more Bullish alternative should be considered. Namely, the current red wave-v can subdivide higher to $58-59K. But, I find that option less likely because of the divergences on the technical indicators and overbought money flow. Thus, a break below the 200d SMA from current levels is a first warning sign for the bears that the (black) major-2 wave is likely underway. In contrast, a break below Monday’s low ($42818, red horizontal arrow) increases those odds even more as the cryptocurrency makes lower lows.
Bottom line: Last week, I found, “If BTC can hold above $35495 from now on (the red wave-i high made on June 24) and rallies towards its 200d SMA from around current levels, then the chart shows a perfect setup for five waves higher since the June 22 low. That would significantly increase the odds for a pullback, wave-2, before a solid rally to ideally new all-time highs; wave-3.” The cryptocurrency did just that and even gave us a little more upside. Thus my preferred POV remains BTC should see a decent pullback soon before rallying again. Alternatively, since upside surprises and downside disappoints in Bull markets, a continued $58-59K is not entirely unlikely. The Bears will now have to break $30K to target $20K.
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