Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil Price Update – Late Session Surge Puts Market in Position to Challenge $113.99 – $115.29

International-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading sharply higher late Friday on the back of record gasoline prices, Additionally, China looked ready to ease pandemic restrictions that could help stabilize demand sooner than expected. Finally, investors also continued to worry about tightening supplies if the European Union bans Russian oil.

U.S. gasoline futures soared to an all-time high after stockpiles fell last week for a sixth straight week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That boasted the gasoline crack spread – a measure of refining profit margins – to its highest since it hit a record in April 2020 when WTI finished in negative territory, according to Reuters.

The bullish move in gasoline could continue to drag crude oil prices higher over the near-term since demand for the fuel is likely to soar when summer driving season starts on the U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend at the end of the month.

Daily July Brent Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $113.99 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $100.93 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $92.87 to $115.29. Its retracement zone at $104.08 to 101.43 is support.

The intermediate range is $123.25 to $92.87. The market is currently testing the upper level of its retracement zone at $111.64 to $108.06.

The major support is the long-term retracement zone at $94.42 to $87.61.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the July Brent crude oil market into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate-term Fibonacci level at $111.64.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $111.64 will indicate the presence of buyers late in the session. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the nearest main top at $113.99.

Taking out $113.99 will reaffirm the uptrend and put the market in a position to challenge the next main top at $115.29. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $111.64 will signal the presence of late session sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at $108.06.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.