China’s GDP Data Brings Back Oil Bears

Both oil benchmarks remained above the $40/Barrel price level.

Brent oil future prices were down 0.37% to trade at $42.77 at the time of writing and West Texas Intermediate crude lost about 0.41% to trade at $40.95.

China reported a 4.9% growth in GDP Y/Y for Q3, smaller than the 5.2% growth earlier anticipated by economic analysts. Although other fundamentals like China’s current unemployment rate was 5.4%, down from the previous quarter’s rate of 5.6%. Industrial production grew 6.9% Y/Y and retail sales grew 3.3% Y/Y, showing a rebound in China’s economic activity amid COVID-19 negative disruption.

However oil traders had hoped for a complete robust economic data from China, a top oil importer, which would mean the world’s economy had a strong footing taking into consideration China’s role in global trade but, its GDP numbers kept oil traders reducing long bets momentarily.

Crude oil bulls still remain under pressure, not surprising to see the recent OPEC’s efforts in curtailing present oil production. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold an all-important meeting on the last day in November, on strategies in limiting crude oil production from January 2021.

The bears might continue to have the limelight, with the resurgence of Covid-19 disrupting major global economies, the restriction on human mobility now observed in Western European countries like France, Germany coupled with the ramping up of oil production in Libya, has weakened the odds for crude oil prices finishing above $45/Barrel in 2020.

Oil traders are certainly nervous about the fact that the trajectory on Covid-19 infections has skewed upwards thereby raising doubts on a pre-COVID-19 economic recovery anytime soon and dampening the prospects for oil demand growth globally.

In addition, as global demand for gasoline remains fragile, OPEC+ will continue to remain under pressure to intervene and support crude oil prices, as long as possible.

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