Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2015 Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2015 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2015 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 41 cents to continue last week’s rally as Baker Hughes reported another drop in production rigs on Friday. Brent Oil added just 3 points to reach 58.71 while Crude oil is at 52.10. OPEC and U.S. drillers are locked in a production war over market share and each group wants the other to curtail drilling so prices will go back up. But, of course, once they do go up, so will production and the supply of new oil. If midstream projects, including gathering pipeline systems, continue to get slowed down or put off, that would make it tougher for drillers to start back up here, since they could not get their oil and gas out of Appalachia to more lucrative markets. And it takes time to restart a drilling program, once it’s stopped.

Crude-oil futures were volatile on  Monday after last week’s gains as investors weighed a further drop in rig counts in the US and weak Chinese trade data.  Oil prices have been up for two consecutive weeks, with Nymex WTI crude gaining 7 per cent last week and ICE Brent crude rising by 9 per cent.

Latest data from oil-field-services company Baker Hughes showed the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US fell by 83 in the latest week, the ninth weekly loss in a row, to the lowest level since December 2011.

While China’s crude-oil imports were strong in January on the commissioning of new refining capacity, it was less flattering compared with a year ago — off 0.6 per cent — due to strong imports last January, analyst Ivan Szpakowski at Citi Research said. He said China’s crude-oil imports are expected to slow from 10 per cent in 2014 to 3 per cent in 2015.

Oil market participants remain divided on whether the current rebound in oil prices can be sustained or whether it is just a blip in a downturn. Headlines indicating tighter supply are being closely watched in a tense market, and price volatility is likely to persist.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Current Account Adj

0.98T

0.95T

0.91T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account (Dec)

0.187T

0.358T

0.433T

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov. Carney 

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance

21.8B

18.3B

17.9B

   

  CAD

 

Housing Starts (Jan)

 

178.0K

180.6K

   

 Brent Oil(60 minutes)20150209124249Crude Oil(60 minutes)20150209124206

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, February 10th

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales

 

0.5%

-0.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

House Price Index

 

1.8%

1.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business

 

 

2

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Jan)

 

 

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Jan) 

 

1.0%

1.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Jan)

 

-3.8%

-3.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Product.

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Prod

 

-0.1%

0.7%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings

 

4.956M

4.972M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date                Country

Feb 11             Sweden Holds bond auction

Feb 11             Germany Eur 5bn Mar 2017 Schatz

Feb 11             US Auctions 10-yr Notes

Feb 12             Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeu

Feb 12             UK Auctions conventional Gilt

Feb 12             US Announces 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 19

Feb 12             US Auctions 30-yr Bonds

 

 

 

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