Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 28, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently trading at 108.92 after hitting resistance and falling from 109.76. As the US eyed releasing some of the Strategic Reserves and Saudi Arabia again stated that they would make up any shortage in production, and have already begun increasing. On Friday crude closed above $109 a barrel, extending gains to a seventh session and posting a weekly rise of 6% on ongoing concerns about supply disruptions.

The close was also oil’s highest since May 3, when oil closed at $111.05 a barrel. Prices hit $113.93 a barrel on April 29, a 52-week high, as concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had also taken center stage. Crude oil is up 11% so far this month on the geopolitical worries between Iran and Israel and the continued mounting tension, along with the Islamic nation stopping oil shipments to France and other EU nations, prior to the embargo effective date. Most countries have already made alternative arrangements, so this rise is only on a supply disruption and should subside quickly.  

 

Today’s economic releases actual v. forecast

EUR

 

 

 

French PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 

 

EUR

 

   

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.5%

 

1.8%

 

1.5%

   

EUR

 

   

Private Loans (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.2%

 

1.0%

 

 

EUR

 

   

Italian Business Confidence 

91.5

 

92.0

 

92.1

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

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