Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2013, Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2013, Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2013, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 96.85 regaining some of yesterday’s losses ahead of this week’s inventory report. Eurozone retail sales fell sharply in December, at down 0.8% on the month and down 3.4% on an annual basis. This data underscores the European Union has a tough road of economic recovery ahead. Other EU data released Tuesday did continue to show slight improvement as the Euro Zone PMI rose to 48.6 in January from 47.2 in December.

Escalating political scandal in Spain has hit the local IBEX stock market recently. Spanish bond yields have also been on the rise recently. There are also concerns about an upcoming election in Italy. Still, Spanish and Italian bond yields are not near the critical 6% or above levels that prompted such concerns just a few months ago. Italian bond yields are presently around 4.4% and Spanish bond yields are near 5.25%. With the eurozone recovery at issue the demand for crude will diminish but with positive Chinese data and strong numbers from Australia this morning the crude market is trading on a stronger note.

With the announcement of negations between Vice President Biden and Iran over nuclear uses, there has been a general easing to political tensions with the possibility of easing embargo restrictions.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 5, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 05

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

House Price Index (QoQ) 

1.60%

 

0.30% 

 

-0.10% 

   

 

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.43B

 

-0.80B 

 

-2.79B 

   

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

3.00% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

51.5

 

49.8 

 

48.9 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.1% 

   

 

12:00

 

RUB

 

 

Russian CPI (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 06

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.9%

-1.8%

Feb. 07

06:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-14

-17

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.9%

0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

0.8%

-0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.9B

-9.2B

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.1%

-2.4%

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

-1.2%

2.9%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

3.0%

-1.9%

Feb. 08

05:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.5%

 

05:30

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.6%

-1.9%

 

05:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

1.0%

0.8%

 

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.0%

2.9%

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-46.0B

-48.7B

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Feb 06 10:10 Sweden 

Feb 06 10:30 Germany 

Feb 06 14:00 US 

Feb 07 09:30 Spain 

Feb 07 12:00 Norway 

Feb 07 15:30 Sweden 

Feb 07 09:50 France 

Feb 07 16:30 Italy  

Feb 08 11:30 Belgium 

Feb 08 16:30 Italy  

Feb 11 10:30 Germany 

Feb 12 09:10 Holland 

Feb 12 09:30 Spain 

Feb 12 10:10 Italy  

Feb 12 10:10 Norway 

Feb 12 10:30 Belgium 

Feb 12 15:30 UK 

Feb 12 18:00 US 

Feb 13 01:30 Japan 

Feb 13 10:10 Italy  

Feb 13 10:30 Germany 

Feb 13 15:30 Sweden 

Feb 13 18:00 US 

Feb 14 10:10 Sweden 

Feb 14 10:30 UK 

Feb 14 16:00 US 

Feb 14 18:00 US

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