Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -95.00B

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.

While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada’s sizable energy sector.

 16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.00M

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

 16:00 USD Gasoline Inventories 3.60M    

Gasoline Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory by commercial firms during the reported week. The data influences the price of gasoline products which affects inflation.

The data has no consistent effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently trading at 100.45

Support and Resistance levels for tomorrow      
S:            100.97   100.39   99.36
R:            103.73   102.98   102.06


The US Government today turned down a Canadian companys plans to build a pipeline from the US/Canada border to the Gulf of Mexico, to transport oil from the Canadian tar fields through Oklahoma and onto the Gulf of Mexico. This pipeline would serve many uses and have many benefits. The pipeline is seen as one way to deal with a supply situation in Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil, and also as an inexpensive transport to get oil from the Canadian tar sands and oil fields on the border of Canada to U.S. refinery industry along the Gulf of Mexico.

The most important benefit means less reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. The pipeline project, however, has been under intense criticism from environmentalists.

A report out today from the International Energy Agency cut demand estimates for 2012. But continued tensions with Iran and the problems from Nigeria pushed prices upwards.

With all the ups and downs today, Crude is just about back where it opened but still above the 100.00 level. Factoring in the glut of Natural Gas, the OPEC assurances to replace any demand or reduction in production because of middle east problem, Crude Oil is looking to drop. Sell on the peaks.

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