Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 10, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 85.45 having gained 1.00 in this morning’s trading. Increased possibility of supply disruption from Norway and Iran lifted crude oil prices. Nymex and Brent crude oil inched up after talks between employers and striking workers were unsuccessful threatening full closure of oil production from Norway, the world’s eighth largest crude oil exporter.

Market sentiments remained skeptical ahead of another round of EU- finance ministers meeting in Brussels, slated to begin today evening. The talking points are likely to revolve around assistance for Spain and Greece. After the rate cut action by key central banks across the globe last week, financial markets would be keenly watching for the U.S FOMC minutes on Wednesday. An indication of further quantitative easing would be very welcome. Chinese inflation numbers, which fell to a 29-month low earlier today, could give some leeway to the Chinese central bank which had recently cut its rate for the second time in less than few weeks, for further stimulus action. However, the recent action is calling for a ground reality check that a hard landing could become inevitable for the Chinese economy. The week is lined up with some crucial economic numbers from China in terms of Industrial production, GDP and retail sales.

Based on global sentiment and demand, crude should be trading down, but the geopolitical possibilities are helping to support prices at this time. We should see crude begin to fall under the 80.00 price level by mid week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Economic Data for July 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 09

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.28T

 

0.42T 

 

0.29T 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.3% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

-1.9% 

 

-1.4% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

06:45

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

3.2% 

 

2.9% 

   

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

 

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