Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast

 

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to gain adding 14 cents to trade at 96.72 at this writing. U.S. crude-oil futures saw modest gains as Cyprus’s banks began to reopen and investors awaited U.S. economic data on fourth-quarter gross domestic product and weekly jobless claims.  Crude prices were supported on optimism that US economy is recovering which would improve the demand prospects for crude. However the upside was limited due to a stronger dollar which is trading new a record high of 83.40 this morning and higher inventories which came at 3.3M. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a climb in crude supplies that was about double market expectations. Crude supplies rose 3.3 million barrels for the week ended March 22. Analysts expected a 1.6 million-barrel climb. Motor gasoline supplies fell by 1.6 million barrels, matching analysts’ expectations, while distillate stockpiles declined by 4.5 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of 700,000 barrels in distillate supplies.

Traders can expect crude prices to go slightly up as loose monetary policies by US and Japan is likely to support prices. Assurances from the new head of the Bank of Japan that he would push through more stimulus and new programs at next week’s meeting helped support oil prices.

Japan’s oil imports from Iran rose 15.9 percent in February from a year ago to the highest in eleven months, customs cleared data showed on Thursday, a rare increase from one of the major buyers of crude from sanctions-hit Iran.

US data was mixed with unemployment climbing a bit unexpectedly while GDP printed above expectations slightly giving a better outcome to 4th quarter results.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data March 28, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Mar. 28

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.3%

 

-1.2% 

 

-1.1% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

11.6%

 

11.6% 

 

11.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.9%

 

6.9% 

 

6.9% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

13K

 

-4K 

 

-3K 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.6%

 

5.7% 

 

5.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

357K

 

340K 

 

341K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3050K

 

3043K 

 

3077K

   

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WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Mar. 29 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

12:30

USD

Personal Income (MoM) 

0.8% 

-3.6% 

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.2% 

 

13:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

72.5 

71.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Apr 02 09:30 Belgium

Apr 03 09:10 Sweden

Apr 03 10:00 Norway

Apr 04 08:30 Spain

Apr 04 08:50 France

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden

Apr 04 15:00 US

Apr 05 15:30 Italy

 

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