Crude Oil

Crude Oil Price Update – Could See Counter-Trend Buying on Test of $64.92 to $64.77

U.S crude oil futures closed lower on Friday, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar and concerns over increasing U.S. production. Last week, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude production jumped 215,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47 million bpd, a new monthly record.

July West Texas Intermediate crude oil settled at $65.81, down $1.20 or -1.82%.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily July WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed on Friday when sellers took out $65.80. The market is now down seven sessions from its last main top on May 22, which puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $68.67 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The nearest resistance is a Fibonacci level at $66.00. This is followed by a 50% level at $67.32.

The first support is a price cluster at $64.92 to $64.77. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area if aggressive counter-trend buyers or profit-takers decide to show up. Look out to the downside if $64.77 fails. There’s run to break with $63.03 the next target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at $65.81, the direction of the market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $66.00.

A sustained move under $66.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the support cluster at $64.92 to $64.77. This is a combination of a short-term 50% level and the contract’s 50% level. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area.

If $64.77 fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside with $63.03 the next major target.

A sustained move over $66.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a move into the 50% level at $67.32. Since the trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this level. Overtaking it will mean the buying is getting stronger with potential targets at $68.67 and $69.21.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.