Crude Oil

Crude Oil Price Update – Trading on Weak Side of Retracement Zone Ahead of EIA Report

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower shortly before the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventories report, due to be released at 1430 GMT. The report is expected to show a build of 2.2 million barrels during the week-ending October 12. Yesterday’s American Petroleum Institute’s inventories report showed a 2.1 million barrel draw so an EIA build is likely to fuel a volatile reaction in the market.

At 1410 GMT, December WTI Crude Oil is trading $70.70, down $1.06 or -1.48%.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily December WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through $70.37 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The next main bottom target is $67.74.

The minor trend is also down. This is why momentum is trending lower. A trade through $75.16 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The market has been trading inside the October 11 range for four sessions. It won’t affect the trend, but a drive through $70.37 could trigger an acceleration to the downside, while a breakout over $72.63 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

The main range is $67.74 to $76.72. Its retracement zone at $72.23 to $71.17 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The minor range is $76.72 to $70.37. Its retracement zone at $73.55 to $74.29 is the primary upside target and resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $70.62.

A sustained move over $70.62 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the Fib level at $71.17, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at $71.72. Look for sellers on the first test of this Gann angle.

Overtaking $71.72 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into $72.23 and $72.63. Look for a potential breakout over $72.63 with $73.55 the next likely target.

A sustained move under $70.62 will indicate the presence of sellers. This should extend the selling into $70.37. Look for an acceleration to the downside if $70.37 fails as support. This could spike the market into the next uptrending Gann angle at $69.18. This is the last potential support angle before the $67.74 main bottom.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.