The gold futures contract gained 1.27% on Tuesday, as it retraced some of its last week’s decline following U.S. dollar’s decline. In late November the market has reached a new low after breaking below local lows along the price level of $1,850. Last week the market has bounced off its mid-November local highs, as we can see on the daily chart ( the chart includes today’s intraday data ):
Gold is 0.3% higher this morning, as it is extending yesterday’s advance. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 2.48% on Tuesday and today it is 2.7% higher. Platinum gained 2.33% and today it is 0.6% higher. Palladium gained 0.22% yesterday and today it’s 1.0% higher. So precious metals are higher again this morning .
Yesterday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index release has been worse than expected and the Industrial Production has been slightly better than expected.
Today we’ve got much better-than-expected PMI releases from the Eurozone . We will also get the U.S. PMI numbers and Retail Sales this morning.
But the markets are waiting for today’s FOMC Statement announcement (2:00 p.m.).
Where would the price of gold go following that news release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 47-month-long period of time that contains of thirty two FOMC releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the FOMC release. We can see that the biggest 10-day advance after the NFP day was +10.5% after March 15, 2020 release and the biggest decline was -7.2% after March 3, 2020 release. But we’ve had an increased volatility following coronavirus fear then.
The latest FOMC Statement release came out two days after the U.S. Presidential Election, on November 5 th . Gold price was 4.4% lower 10 days after the release.
The following chart shows average gold price path before and after the FOMC releases for the past 47 months and 32 releases. The market was usually declining ahead of the FOMC day. Then it was going up for a week-long period. We can see that on average, gold price was 0.45% higher 10 days after the FOMC Statement announcement.
Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:
Wednesday, December 16
- 3:15 a.m. Eurozone – French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI
- 3:30 a.m. Eurozone – German Flash Manufacturing PMI , German Flash Services PMI
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m , Core Retail Sales m/m
- 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Flash Manufacturing PMI , Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index
- 2:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Statement , Federal Funds Rate , FOMC Economic Projections
- 2:30 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Press Conference
- 7:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
- All Day – OPEC-JMMC Meetings
Thursday, December 17
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts
- Tentative, Japan – Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Press Conference
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
* * * * *
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.