Daily Grains Analysis for March 28, 2018

Grain prices edged lower early on Wednesday ahead of Thursday Grain stock report. The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly report tomorrow. Analyst expectations for March 1 corn stocks range from 8.55 billion to 8.88 billion bushels with an average of a record 8.703 billion bushels that, if realized, would be an 81-million-bushel increase from last year. Analyst expectations for March 1 wheat stocks range from 1.45 billion to 1.64 billion bushels with an average of 1.498 billion bushels, that, if realized would be a decrease of 376 million bushels from last year’s 1.87 billion bushels.

Corn Prices

Corn prices forming an inside day early with a higher low and a lower high. The first level of support is seen near and upward sloping trend line that comes in near 370. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 376. Momentum is negative as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The fast stochastics is consolidating but is printing a reading of 17, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

Expectations for soybean stocks range from 1.81 billion to 2.11 billion bushels with an average of a record 2.03 billion that, if realized, would be an increase of 291 million bushels from last year’s 1.74 billion and 246 million bushels above the previous record of 1.79 billion that was set in 2007.

Soybean prices edged lower early on Wednesday. Prices are forming a wedge pattern as energy is stored and prices consolidate. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1029, and then a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1015. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The fast stochastics is consolidating but is printing a reading of 20, at the oversold trigger level which could foreshadow a correction.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are moving lower after breaking down through trend line support which is an upward sloping trend line which is now resistance near 449.  Support is seen near the January lows at 413. Negative momentum is accelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 1, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.