Dow futures closed lower on Friday after giving up earlier gains. After the initial thrust to the upside, the market fell victim to low pre-holiday volume and the buying dried up.
The fundamentals were mixed going into the session with the Fed minutes providing support because it signaled the central bank wouldn’t be as aggressive as expected with interest rate hikes, however, gains were likely limited by renewed geopolitical concerns over North Korea.
On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 24730, down 73 or -0.30%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower.
A trade through 25080 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The minor trend is down. It turned down last week when sellers took out the previous minor bottom at 24603. This move also shifted momentum to the downside.
The major upside target and resistance zone is 24926 to 25351. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. It stopped the rally last week at 25080.
The main range is 23467 to 25080. The selling pressure will strengthen on a trade through 24584. This could lead to a break into its retracement zone at 24274 to 24083. Since the main trend is up, buyers could show up on a test of this zone.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Since the main trend is up, the key level to watch is 24584.
Bullish traders are likely to try to defend 24584. If successful, they could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the major 50% level at 24926. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a retest of 25080.
Taking out 25080 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could lead to a possible test of the main Fibonacci level at 25351.
Taking out 24584 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the Dow into the short-term 50% level at 24274. This is followed by the Fib level at 24083.
Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 24584. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.