E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Bulls Face Challenge at 33647 – 34369

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose on Friday as investors continued to pick up stocks at relatively reduced levels following a recent steep sell-off.

The blue chip average had recently fallen to its lowest level in over a year, but investors seem to be expressing some optimism that the overall stock market may have finally found a bottom.

On Friday, the June E-mini Dow settled at 33158, up 558 or +1.68%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $332.12, up $5.67 or +1.74%.

Friday Recap

Helping to fuel the solid rally was encouraging U.S. economic data that showed better-than-expected consumer spending and appeared to reaffirm the data from the CPI report earlier in the month that suggested inflation had peaked.

The first report demonstrated the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. The second report fueled hopes that the Fed’s hawkish maneuvers to contain decades-high inflation will not cool the economy into recession.

In stock related news, shares of Apple, +4.08%, Boeing, +3.52% and Walt Disney, +3.51%, provided the strongest lift to the Dow. Every stock in the 30 component average posted gains from +0.59% to +4.08%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up last week when buyers took out the previous main top at 32692. A move through 30585 will change the main trend to down.

The market closed on the strong side of a 50% level at 32999, making it potential support. This is followed by the short-term retracement zone at 32712 to 32306.

The minor range is 30585 to 33239. Its retracement zone at 31912 to 31599 is potential support.

The contract range is 36708 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 33647 to 34369 is the primary upside target.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 32999 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32999 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking last week’s high at 33239 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the major 50% level at 32999.

Look for sellers on the first test of 32999. However, overcoming this level could extend the rally into the main top at 34027, followed by the major Fibonacci level at 34369.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32999 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into a series of retracement levels at 32712, 32306, 31912 and 31599.

A break into the 31912 – 31599 retracement zone would be considered a normal 50% – 61.8% correction of the first leg up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.