E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 31916 to Sustain Rally

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are inching lower shortly before the cash market opening on Thursday after giving up earlier gains that took the blue chip average to a record high. The price action suggests a tired market that jumped over 400 points the previous session, bolstered by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

At 12:14 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 31920, up 4 or +0.01%.

Although Powell downplayed signs of inflation, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise due to increasing growth and inflation expectations. However, if they continue to rise too high, too fast, some investors may be inclined to trim stock positions and move money into the guaranteed Treasury market.

On the data front, initial jobless claims numbers will be released at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a print of 845,000. Also at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release its second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP. It is expected to increase from 4.0% to 4.2%.

After the market closes, Dow component Salesforce.com will report earnings.

Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed during the pre-market session. A trade through 31103 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is 31103 to 32033. Its retracement zone at 31568 to 31458 is the nearest support zone. This zone will move higher as the market moves up.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones industrial Average futures contract will be determined by trader reaction to 31916.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31916 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a potential breakout over the intraday high at 32033 since there is no true resistance at current price levels.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31916 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling pressure to possibly extend into the minor retracement zone at 31568 to 31458.

A close under 31916 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 31568 to 31458 the first target area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.