September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the cash market. The market has clawed back all of its earlier loss that was fueled by a knee-jerk reaction to a U.S. political event. Traders are now awaiting the release of the Fed minutes at 1800 GMT.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market has been trying to form a secondary higher bottom at 7316.50, but the buying volume has been weak most of the month.
A trade through 7505.50 will change the main trend to up with the contract high at 7530.00 the next upside target. A trade through 7316.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through 7452.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.
The short-term range is 7505.50 to 7316.50. Its retracement zone at 7411.00 to 7433.25 is providing resistance.
The main range is 7166.75 to 7505.50. Its retracement zone at 7336.00 to 7296.00 is support. A major 50% level comes in at 7348.25.
Another major retracement zone is 7243.00 to 7175.25. This is the major support.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 7411.00.
A sustained move under 7411.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a pullback into the pair of 50% levels at 7348.25 and 7336.00. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.
If 7336.00 fails as support then look for a plunge into an uptrending Gann angle at 7302.75, followed closely by a Fibonacci level at 7296.00. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into 7243.00 and 7234.75.
Overtaking 7411.00 will signal the return of buyers. This could spike the market into a resistance cluster at 7433.25 to 7433.50. Look for sellers on the first test of this area.
If 7433.50 fails then look for the rally to continue into 7452.25, 7469.50 and 7487.50. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 7505.50 main top.