E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Struggling Inside 15069.75 to 14920.25

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are edging lower late in the session on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains. The index was trading higher most of the session on a technical bounce following yesterday’s steep sell-off, but the counter-trend rally fizzled due to the lack of buyers.  The sell-off in the futures market represents a divergence from the cash market NASDAQ Composite which ended lower for the day.

At 20:20 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14979.25, down 30.25 or -0.20%.

Prices likely retreated after the cash market close as investors weighed the risk of contagion from troubles at debt-saddled developer China Evergrande, while awaiting the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

NASDAQ-100 Component stocks finished mixed with Activision Blizzard Inc and Electronic Arts finishing lower by 4.13% and 2.56% respectively. Seagen Inc and Moderna Inc closed up 3.74% and 2.53% respectively.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through 15702.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 14807.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 15532.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The main range is 13450.00 to 15702.25. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 14576.00 to 14310.25.

The intermediate range is 14437.00 to 15702.25. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 15069.75 to 14920.25. Trader reaction to this zone will likely determine the direction of the market the rest of the week.

The short-term range is 15702.25 to 14807.50. Its retracement zone at 15255 to 15360.50 is the next upside target. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15069.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15069.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the Fibonacci level at 14920.25. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 14807.50, followed by 14699.00.

Taking out 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the break to continue into 14576.00 to 14310.25. Inside this range is a main bottom at 14437.00. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could step in on a test of this major retracement zone.

Bullish Scenario

Holding 14920.25 will signal the selling pressure is getting weaker. This may trigger a short-covering rally into 15069.75.

Overtaking and sustaining a move over 15069.75 will indicate the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into 15255.00 to 15360.50.

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are edging lower late in the session on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains. The index was trading higher most of the session on a technical bounce following yesterday’s steep sell-off, but the counter-trend rally fizzled due to the lack of buyers.  The sell-off in the futures market represents a divergence from the cash market NASDAQ Composite which ended lower for the day.

At 20:20 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14979.25, down 30.25 or -0.20%.

Prices likely retreated after the cash market close as investors weighed the risk of contagion from troubles at debt-saddled developer China Evergrande, while awaiting the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

NASDAQ-100 Component stocks finished mixed with Activision Blizzard Inc and Electronic Arts finishing lower by 4.13% and 2.56% respectively. Seagen Inc and Moderna Inc closed up 3.74% and 2.53% respectively.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through 15702.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 14807.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 15532.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The main range is 13450.00 to 15702.25. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 14576.00 to 14310.25.

The intermediate range is 14437.00 to 15702.25. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 15069.75 to 14920.25. Trader reaction to this zone will likely determine the direction of the market the rest of the week.

The short-term range is 15702.25 to 14807.50. Its retracement zone at 15255 to 15360.50 is the next upside target. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15069.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15069.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the Fibonacci level at 14920.25. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 14807.50, followed by 14699.00.

Taking out 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the break to continue into 14576.00 to 14310.25. Inside this range is a main bottom at 14437.00. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could step in on a test of this major retracement zone.

Bullish Scenario

Holding 14920.25 will signal the selling pressure is getting weaker. This may trigger a short-covering rally into 15069.75.

Overtaking and sustaining a move over 15069.75 will indicate the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into 15255.00 to 15360.50.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.