March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly better early Thursday. Yesterday, stock market volume was extremely low so we have to take the price action with a grain of salt. We could continue to see another low volume today as investors prepare for the long holiday week-end.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, we’ve seen sideways to lower price action since December 18. A trade through 2698.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will turn down on a move through 2651.75.
The short-term range is 2651.75 to 2698.00. Its retracement zone at 2674.75 to 2669.50 is the first downside target. Since the trend is up, look for a technical bounce on the first test of this area.
The intermediate range is 2622.50 to 2698.00. If 2669.50 fails as support, look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at 2660.25 to 2651.25.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on Wednesday’s close at 2685.50 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Uptrending Gann angle at 2687.75 and the downtrending Gann angle at 2684.00.
Overtaking 2687.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into downtrending Gann angles at 2691.00 and 2694.50. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 2698.00 main top.
The inability to overcome 2687.75 will signal the presence of sellers. A move under the downtrending angle at 2684.00 and the uptrending Gann angle at 2682.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside into the short-term 50% level at 2674.75, a longer-term uptrending Gann angle at 2672.50 and the short-term Fibonacci level at 2669.50.
Be careful buying strength and selling weakness due to expectations of well-below average volume.