E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – In Position to Post Closing Price Reversal Bottom

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called higher based on the pre-market trade. Following yesterday’s worse decline since the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis, the benchmark index is rallying after President Trump pledged government stimulus to offset the negative impact on the economy by the coronavirus. Treasury yields are also moving higher, a sign that investors are trimming safe-haven positions in favor of higher risk investments.

At 12:35 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2828.25, up 80.50 or +2.93%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2695.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through the last swing top at 3137.00.

The earlier price action has also put the index in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the trend to up, but if confirmed, it could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The long-term range is 2356.00 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone at 2876.75 to 2753.75. The index is currently trading inside this zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 3137.00 to 2695.25. Its retracement zone at 2916.25 to 2968.25 is another potential upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2828.25, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 2747.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2747.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the Fibonacci level at 2754.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into the 50% level at 2876.75. This move took place earlier today.

Taking out 2876.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a labored rally with the next target the short-term 50% level at 2916.25.

Overtaking 2916.25 could trigger a rally into a resistance cluster at 2963.00 to 2968.25.

Taking out the steep downtrending Gann angle at 2981.50 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next targets 3137.00 and 3189.00.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 2876.75 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the Fib level at 2753.75, followed by yesterday’s close at 2747.75 and yesterday’s low at 2695.25.

The next downside target is a long-term uptrending Gann angle at 2658.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.