E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 8, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. Concerns over the direction of U.S. interest rates are encouraging investors to trim positions after Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report and ahead of Tuesday’s pivotal speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors are hoping he offers some clues as to whether policymakers will reduce rates by 25 basis points or more as the financial markets are predicting.

At 13:17 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2981.25, down 9.25 or -0.31%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside with the formation of the potentially bearish closing price reversal top on Friday at 3006.00.

A trade through 2971.25 will confirm the chart formation. This won’t change the trend, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction. The main trend changes to down on a trade through 2914.50.

A move through 3006.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor range is 3006.00 to 2971.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 2988.75 is controlling the price action today.

The short-term range is 2914.50 to 3006.00. Its retracement zone at 2960.25 to 2949.50 is the first downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 2988.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2988.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to go after the uptrending Gann angle at 2999.50. Overtaking this angle should lead to a test of Friday’s high at 3006.00. Overtaking this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2988.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a potential support cluster at 2971.25 to 2970.50.

Taking out 2971.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. Breaking through 2970.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the short-term 50% level at 2960.25. Watch for buyers. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 2949.50, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at 2942.50.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.