E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – October 4, 2018 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the opening. Investors are being pressured by rising interest rates and hawkish commentary from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors are also squaring positions and booking profits ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been drifting sideways to lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on September 21. A trade through 2947.00 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 2883.50.

The minor trend is down. It turned down earlier today when sellers took out 2917.50. A trade through 2944.75 will change the minor trend to up. Today’s change in trend also shifted momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 2947.00 to 2907.50. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 2927.25. This price is controlling the direction of the index today.

The intermediate range is 2883.50 to 2947.00. Its retracement zone is 2915.25 to 2907.75. This zone is early support.

The main range is 2869.50 to 2947.00. Its retracement zone at 2908.25 to 2899.25 is the major support zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 2927.25.

A sustained move under 2927.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at 2915.25. This level provided support earlier today.

If 2915.25 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the support cluster at 2907.75 to 2907.50. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

Taking out 2907.50 could trigger an acceleration into the Fib level at 2899.25. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 2895.50. This is the last potential support angle before the 2883.50 main bottom.

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 2927.25 will signal the return of buyers. The first target angle is 2931.50.

Crossing to the strong side of the angle at 2931.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into an uptrending Gann angle at 2945.50.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.