E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Set-Up for Closing Price Reversal Top

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower as we head into the last hour of cash market trading for the week. The index traded higher early in the session, but turned negative following the release of a disappointing U.S. retail sales report. The price action also suggests investors are a little reluctant ahead of the weekend due to the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus epidemic.

At 19:50 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3372.00, down 5.25 or -0.16%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out the previous day’s high. The main trend will change to down when sellers take out the last swing bottom at 3303.50.

A change in trend is not likely, but the market is in a position to post a closing price reversal top. If formed then confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction and/or a 50% retracement of its current rally.

The short-term range is 3303.50 to 3388.50. Its retracement zone at 3345.75 to 3335.75 is the first downside target.

The main range is 3212.75 to 3388.50. Its retracement zone at 3300.50 to 3280.00 is the second potential downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on Friday’s price action and the current price at 3372.00, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 3377.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3377.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first two downside targets are an uptrending Gann angle at 3372.75 and 3367.50. This area is currently being tested.

Taking out 3367.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into the short-term 50% level at 3345.75, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 3335.75 and another uptrending Gann angle at 3335.50.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above the uptrending Gann angles at 3367.50 and 3372.75 will indicate that buyers are coming in to prevent a steep break. Turning higher for the session by overcoming 3337.50 will signal the return of buyers. If this is able to create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the intraday high at 3388.50.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.