E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 3900.00, Weakens Under 3881.75

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher late in the session on Tuesday after erasing all of its earlier losses. While the battle continued between investors seeking opportunity in stocks that thrived amid lockdowns and those that stand to benefit most from a reopening economy, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seems to have green-lighted another leg higher by pushing back against concerns that the central bank would change policy earlier than expected to combat the threat of inflation.

At 21:51 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3874.50, up 1.00 or +-0.03%. This is up from a low of 3804.75.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the downside. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3656.50. A move through 3959.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 3936.00 will change the minor trend to up. A move through 3804.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.

The minor range is 3959.25 to 3804.75. The index is straddling its pivot at 3881.75 late in the session on Tuesday.

The short-term range is 3656.50 to 3959.25. Its 50% level at 3807.75 was tested earlier in the day when the index fell to 3804.75.

The next potential support is a 50% level at 3777.50. This is followed by a major value zone at 3728.25 to 3673.75.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on the price action late in the session, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3881.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3881.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the Fibonacci level at 3900.00.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 3881.75 to 3900.00. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

If the buying is strong enough to take out 3900.00 then look for another potential surge into the minor top at 3936.00. Momentum will shift to the upside on a trade through this level. This could lead to an eventual test of the record high at 3959.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3881.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into 3850.25. If this fails then look for a possible acceleration to the downside with the support cluster at 3807.75 to 3804.75 the next potential target.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.