E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Struggling to Follow-Through to Upside

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower after giving back earlier gains on Monday. Nonetheless, the market remains within striking distance of its record high amid optimism about the economy’s ongoing reopening this summer.

Investors are still digesting Friday’s job report which was strong enough to maintain their confidence in the economy, but soft enough to keep the Federal Reserve from rushing to change its easy money policies.

At 11:27 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4226.75, down 1.50 or -0.04%.

Helping to keep a lid on the index may be concerns ahead of Thursday’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. In April the CPI rose 4.2% from the previous year, the fastest increase since 2008. If prices continue to rise it could cause the Federal Reserve to step back from it accommodative policy, which could trigger a near-term break.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The early trade through 4230.00 reaffirmed the uptrend. Taking out the intraday high at 4232.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further rally into the all-time high at 4238.25. The main trend will change to down on a move through 4165.25.

The minor range is 4142.50 to 4230.00. Its 50% level at 4187.25 is potential support.

The short-term range is 4055.50 to 4230.00. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to continue into its retracement zone at 4143.75 to 4123.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4228.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4228.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the intraday high at 4232.50. The market could continue to move higher over this price with 4238.25 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4228.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If the selling is strong enough, this could trigger a further break into the minor pivot at 4187.25. This is the last potential support before the 4165.25 main bottom.

If 4165.25 fails, the trend will change to down with the retracement zone at 4143.75 to 4123.00 the next likely downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.