E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 2930.25 Sets the Tone

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading mixed shortly before the cash market opening on Friday. The market was pressured earlier in the session as growing tensions between Washington and Beijing added to fears of a slower recovery from a coronavirus-led recession.

China moved on Friday to impose a national-security law in Hong Kong that could see mainland intelligence agencies set up based in the global financial hub, raising fears of more pro-democracy protests.

At 13:30 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2941.50, up 4.50 or +0.15%.

Early in the session, stocks making the biggest moves include Deere and Alibaba. Deere reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $2.11 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.62 a share. Revenue beat estimates as well.

The China-based e-commerce giant, Alibaba, beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal fourth quarter, and topped $1 trillion in gross merchandise volume for the first time in the just-concluded fiscal year.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 2976.25 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2760.25.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum.

The main range is 3397.75 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2785.75 to 2930.25 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The minor range is 2760.25 to 2976.25. Its 50% level at 2868.25 is potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2841.50, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2930.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2930.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible retest of 2976.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2930.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 2868.25. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If it fails then watch for an acceleration to the downside with the next target a support cluster at 2785.75 to 2765.50.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.