E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 3909.75, Strengthens Over 3926.75

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat as investors deal with escalating concerns over another wave of coronavirus infections in Europe that could slow the global economic recovery. Traders are also digesting comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The benchmark index was shaken after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the U.S. economy remains in crisis from the pandemic even as she defended developing plans for future tax increases to pay for new public investments.

At 07:30 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3896.75, down 3.00 or -0.08%.

Investors are also expressing concerns that new pandemic curbs and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe will slow a recovery in demand.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of a closing price reversal top on March 18.

A trade through 3978.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3710.50.

The minor trend is down. This confirms the shift in momentum to down. A trade through 3875.00 will indicate the selling pressure is increasing. A move through 3944.50 change the minor trend to up.

On the upside, minor 50% resistance levels come in at 3909.75 and 3926.75.

The short-term range is 3710.50 to 3978.50. Its 50% level at 3844.50 is the first downside target.

The main range is 3648.00 to 3978.50. Its retracement zone at 3813.25 to 3774.25 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index will be determined by trader reaction to 3909.75 and 3926.75. Trading between these levels will indicate a neutral tone.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3909.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 3875.00. Taking out this level could trigger a further break into 3844.50. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main retracement zone at 3813.25 to 3774.25.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 3909.75 will be a sign that sellers are letting up and buyers could be returning. A sustained move over 3926.75 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into 3944.50.

Taking out 3944.50 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 3978.50 the next major upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.