E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 4194.75, Strengthens Over 4207.00

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are weaker, but off their lows in the pre-market session on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as early as 2023.

The benchmark index fell on Wednesday after the Fed’s initial statement and economic projections, but managed to post a strong intraday rally after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, those gains faded into the close, leading to today’s early follow-through selling.

At 02:14 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4197.50, down 15.50 or -0.37%.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on June 15 and its subsequent confirmation on June 16.

A trade through 4258.25 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4155.50 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 4155.50 to 4258.25. The index is currently straddling its retracement zone at 4207.00 to 4194.75

The minor range is 4258.25 to 4183.00. Its 50% level at 4220.75 is potential resistance. This level will move lower if the index continues to weaken.

The main range is 4020.00 to 4258.25. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 4139.00 to 4111.00 will become the next downside target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4194.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4194.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 4183.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4155.50 the next target.

The trend will change to down on a trade through 4155.50, making 4139.00 to 4111.00 the next target zone.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4194.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger the start of a labored rally with potential targets 4207.00 and 4220.75. Sellers could come in on a test of these levels, but overtaking 4220.75 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 4258.25 the next likely target.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.