EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for August 13, 2021

The Euro is trading weaker at the mid-session on Friday, supported by lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar. The move is likely being fueled by uncertainty as to the timing of the Fed’s easing of its asset purchases due to mixed economic data from earlier in the week.

At 13:31 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1769, up 0.0035 or +0.30%.

On Thursday, data from the Labor Department showed 375,000 jobless claims were filed last week, in line with economists’ forecasts. Meanwhile, July’s producer price index, excluding volatile food, trade services and energy components, climbed 0.9% last month versus a forecasted 0.5% increase.

This set of data, which also came out on Thursday, followed the release of the July consumer price index on Wednesday which showed core inflation had risen less than expected last month.

In other bullish news, the Euro Zone posted a large surge in its trade surplus with the rest of the world in June from May, data released on Friday by the European Union statistics office showed, as exports grew faster than imports on the month.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted higher with the confirmation of Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 1.1909 will change the main trend to up, while a move through 1.1706 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 1.1706 to 1.1773. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1740 is potential support. This level will move up as the EUR/USD rises.

The short-term range is 1.1909 to 1.1706. Its retracement zone at 1.1808 to 1.1831 is the next potential upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1740.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1740 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move continues to generate enough upside momentum over the short-run then look for the current rally to possibly extend into 1.1808 to 1.1831.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1740 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a short-term break into 1.1706 to 1.1704. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1603 the next potential target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.