The Euro is trading flat-to-lower on Tuesday on light volume ahead of the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting later today. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but there is speculation that policymakers may try to start flattening the yield curve. This would push Treasury yields lower, putting downside pressure on the U.S. Dollar, while driving the Euro higher.
At 12:22 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1282, down 0.0010 or -0.09%.
In other news, Euro Zone bond yields were mostly steady early on Tuesday before a supply-heavy session, with lower-rated states expected to raise large amounts through syndicated sales.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on Friday. On Monday, the potentially bearish chart pattern was confirmed.
A trade through 1.1384 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.0871. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.
The main range is 1.1496 to 1.0636. Its retracement zone at 1.1167 to 1.1066 is controlling the longer-term direction of the EUR/USD. It is also potential support. Inside this zone is the short-term 50% level at 1.1127. This is also potential support.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
If the selling pressure persists over the near-term then look for a minimum pullback into the main Fibonacci level at 1.1167.
If buyers return today then the first upside target is 50% of the break from 1.1384 to 1.1241. This level comes in at 1.1313.
We could see a two-sided rangebound trade on Tuesday as traders likely lack the conviction to put on a major position ahead of the Fed announcement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.