EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 29, 2021

The Euro is being pressured by a strong U.S. Dollar on Wednesday amid concerns the Federal Reserve will start to withdraw policy support as early as November with a potential rate hike in 2022.

Meanwhile, all of this is taking place as lawmakers argue in Washington over the U.S. debt ceiling that threatens to shut down the U.S. government.

Additionally, the greenback – the world’s reserve currency seen as a safe haven bet at times of market stress – has strengthened in recent days as investors instead focus on fears of a global economic slowdown, a rise in energy prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields.

At 13:16 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1642, down 0.0042 or -0.36%.

In economic news, Euro Zone economic sentiment edged higher in September after a fall in August, boosted by optimism among consumers and in the industry and construction sectors, while inflation expectations continued to rise among manufacturers and consumers alike.

The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 117.8 in September, from 117.6 in August, after hitting an all-time high of 119.0 in July.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the August 20 main bottom at 1.1664. A trade through 1.1755 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 1.1755 to 1.1640. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1698 is potential resistance. The pivot will move lower if the low continues to move down.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1684.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1684 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the 1.1664 will reaffirm the downtrend. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the November 4, 2020 main bottom at 1.1603.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1684 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pivot at 1.1698. Overtaking this level will indicate the short-covering is getting stronger. This would make 1.1755 to 1.1775 the next likely upside targets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.