The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday shortly before the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements at 11:45 GMT. Central bank policymakers are expected to reduce the pace of the ECB’s bond buying. Meanwhile, gains are likely being capped by concerns about the global economy, which is encouraging investors to seek shelter in the U.S. Dollar.
At 10:14 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1833, up 0.0015 or +0.12%.
With the Euro Zone economy roaring back to life, the ECB will debate a cut in its stimulus on Thursday, beginning a hard-fought and lengthy discussion on how to dismantle the crisis-fighting measures that have kept the bloc afloat, Reuters wrote.
The ECB has provided record monetary support for the Euro Zone since the start of the pandemic. But economic growth in the bloc is now solid, unemployment is falling and inflation is on the rise, setting the stage for a debate that will chart the bank’s course for years to come, according to Reuters.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1664 will change the main trend to down. A move through 1.1909 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The short-term range is 1.1603 to 1.1975. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.1820 to 1.1856. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the common currency.
The minor range is 1.1664 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1787 to 1.1758 is the primary downside target and value area. Since the main trend is up, a break into this zone could bring in new buyers.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1820.
A sustained move over 1.1820 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the Fibonacci level at 1.1856. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 1.1909 the next major target.
A sustained move under 1.1820 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at 1.1787.
Look for buyers on the first test of 1.1787. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly fuel a further break into the minor Fibonacci level at 1.1758. Continue to watch for buyers.
If 1.1758 fails as support then prepare for a possible acceleration to the downside.