The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading in this market. That being said, the 50 day EMA underneath is more than likely going to offer support again, as this pair is certainly in an uptrend. However, that does not necessarily mean that it is going to be easy to break out to the upside. In fact, I think what we have here is a scenario where we simply chop back and forth, but that is essentially with the Euro tends to do. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to say stuck in this overall range, as the 1.20 level underneath offers plenty of support, and therefore I think that is essentially where the “floor the market” currently resides.
EUR/USD Video 11.06.21
Looking at this chart, the 1.23 level is crucial resistance, and I think will be difficult to break above. If we can break above there, then it is likely that we could see this market go looking towards 1.25 handle which is my longer-term target going forward. I believe that it is only a matter of time before we reach towards that area, but I think that is probably a scenario that we will see in late summer, perhaps early fall. Between now and then, I think it still remains a little bit of a short-term “buy on the dips” type of market, so if you trade shorter-term charts then you start looking for supportive places like 1.21, the 50 day EMA, etc. I have no interest in shorting this market until we get well below the 1.20 handle.
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