The Euro has shown itself to be somewhat choppy over the last couple of days, which in a sense is a good turn of events for the Euro itself. After all, the market had been sold off rather drastically, so stabilization is certainly going to be welcomed by the bullish. On the other hand, we have not exactly taken out to the upside, and we do have to deal with the 200 day EMA, so that will certainly be worth paying attention to as well.
EUR/USD Video 23.06.21
When I look at this chart, I believe that the resistance above is at the 200 day EMA and the 1.1830 level is offering support. I anticipate that Jerome Powell will say something in front of Congress to make a move one direction or the other, and at that point in time it should simply be a matter of following the market in whichever direction it chooses. Until then, I do not necessarily believe that the market will have the necessary clarity to get moving. In the short term, it probably becomes more or less a scalping type of environment, but I do believe that a move is coming in the next day or two should determine the next several handles. Until then, I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity.
Keep in mind that the US dollar will drive where this pair goes more than anything else, so if Jerome Powell does suggest that the Federal Reserve is going to stay as loose as possible going forward, that probably gives the signal that the Euro will break out. On the other hand, if he continues to suggest that tightening is coming, that could send this market towards the 1.17 handle over the next couple of weeks.
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