EUR/USD daily chart, July 09, 2018

EUR/USD Price Forecast – euro rallies after strong jobs number

The Euro rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, after the job report came out the United States suggesting that it was more of a “risk on” type of environment. However, we have a lot of noise out there involving trade talks and tariffs, so I suspect that any rally that this market gets based upon a jobs number will very quickly have to turn around and start thinking about these problems. If that’s the case, I anticipate that the rally will be somewhat short-lived.

The 1.1850 level above is going to be crucial, as it is the top of the overall consolidation area that we seem to be trying to form. If we can break above there, then obviously the market can go much higher. There is an argument to be made for a little bit of a “double bottom” at the bottom of the chart near the 1.15 handle, but that being said it’s likely that the market participants will continue to be somewhat skittish overall, as there are plenty of things out there to worry about in this type of trading environment.

The Chinese have yet to retaliate, but once they do it will more than likely be more of the same tit-for-tat type of attitude, and if that’s the case, I suspect that the markets will probably pullback in a bit of a preservation move ahead of the weekend. There are far too many moving pieces to be comfortable with the longer-term move at this point.

EUR/USD Video 09.07.18