The Euro rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.1850 level. That is an area that of course has been important more than once, and at this point in time blowing through it of course is a good sign. However, the 50 day EMA is trying to cross below the 200 day EMA, near the 1.1925 level. At this point, a lot of traders will be paying close attention to this, as it is a longer-term negative sign. Furthermore, the 200 day EMA does tend to attract a lot of attention, so signs of exhaustion would more than likely be sold into.
EUR/USD Video 30.07.21
While the US dollar continues to soften, the reality is that it might be a little bit overdone considering that the interest rate differential still favors the United States, so all things been equal that will continue to put a little bit of downward pressure on the Euro itself. Having said that, if we were to break above the “death cross”, that opens up the possibility of a move towards the 1.20 handle. If we were to break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move towards the 1.2150 level, that being said, the market is more likely than not to find sellers sooner or later.
I do not like the Euro in general, as it is very choppy to say the least, but ultimately this is a market that I think continues to see a bit of a reaction to the Jerome Powell statement. Given enough time though, I do think that we might have a nice selling opportunity, all it would take is a little bit of a “risk off move” in the markets overall.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.