EUR/CHF Forecast Dec. 06, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/CHF started the week with upside bias as the risk appetite started to gradually return to the market with the announced austerity package from Italy and Merkel and Sarkozy’s agreement on a plan to stem the crisis.

We can see investors hopeful that Europe this week will present new and expanded measures that are strong enough to contain the crisis and expecting much from the ECB and also the EU leaders. This sentiment supported the euro especially with eyes ahead at the CPI from Switzerland on Tuesday and fears of rising deflation threats that might trigger a new SNB move to weaken its currency.

On Tuesday the main event will be the Swiss inflation data as further signs of deflation will be the trigger to markets to start pricing a new move from the SNB and can further weaken the franc.

As of 08:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release CPI for Nov. where the reading is predicted to record -0.4% from the prior -0.1% on the year while rise to 0.0% from the previous -0.1% on the monthly basis. On the other hand, the U.S. has no releases.

The euro zone will start the session at 10:00 GMT with the GDP figures for the third quarter in a preliminary reading, where the quarterly and annual seasonally adjusted indexes could have lingered at 0.2% and 1.4% respectively, noting that the Household Consumption index previous reading was 0.2% drop, while the Gross Fixed Capital was at 0.2%, in the time Government Expenditures dropped by 0.2% previously.

Germany will join the session at 11:00 GMT with the Factory Orders index for October, where the annual non-seasonally adjusted index could have expanded by 1.8% compared with the previous expansion of 2.4%, while the monthly seasonally adjusted index is predicted to expand by 1.0% from the previous drop of 4.3%.

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