EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis June 5, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF fell today to trade at 1.2007 as the euro bears continue to push the euro towards the SNB line in the sand.

There was little in the way of eco news for either of these currencies, and news flow was fairly light. EU meetings continue as worries about a bailout for Spain continue to mount. Italy and Greece remain in the background. The euro was able to move up against the weakened US today giving it some momentum but it did not translate to other currencies.

With European economies battered by rising debts, all eyes would be on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, where President Draghi is expected to retain the rates at 1 percent but could initiate bond buying action amid spreading contagion. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to meet EU commissioner Jose Barroso in Berlin today evening to discuss on current situation in Europe, including the preparation for the next European Council meeting June 28-29 in Brussels. Overall, the week could be held hostage to events unfolding in Europe, although hopes of a QE3 could rejuvenate market entities.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 4, 2012 actual v. forecast (virtually no eco data in Europe or the US today)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 04

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

2.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.0%

 

 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Profits (QoQ) 

-4.0%

 

-2.0% 

 

-6.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-2.40%

 

 

 

-0.80% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 5

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.3%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

 

2.2%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

6th-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

   

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

55.8

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

 

2.8%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

 

-3.3%

 

Jun 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

235.6B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.1%

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

53.3

TBD

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

   

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

325B

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

TBD

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

   

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

 

-1.5%

8:30

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

 

3.5%

TBD

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

   

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan 

Jun 05  09:30  Belgium

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

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