EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF returned to its tight range and is trading at 1.2010, as the euro continues to sink around the world; falling against most of its trading partners this pair remains asleep, under the careful eyes of the SNB.

The USD soared today, pushing the DI to 82.87 while the euro has tumbled below the all important 1.25 level to remain at 1.2417 and it seems destined to see the 1.23 range this week.

Until the EU pulls some rabbits out of the hat, and until the politicians and Spain and Greece get their acts together, the euro will continue to tumble and risk aversion and safe havens will remain the theme.

The euro continues to drift lower, now holding under the 1.25 level as problems in the EU burst everywhere today. Spain and Italy saw their bond rates soar, while Greek polls showed that the election favors the anti EU movement picking up momentum and taking the lead.

In Spain, the Prime Minister clarified his statements of early this week, saying that Spain would recapitalize their banks and then raise the money through bond sales, as rates rose to 6.7% today. The ECB claims that they were not approached about the earlier scenario for Spain to loan the money to the banks and then for Spain to use that paper to borrow from the ECB.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports,

Economic Data for May 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 30

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5%

 

3.0% 

 

-3.4% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

0.81

 

0.48 

 

0.43 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

6.03%

 

 

 

5.66% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estímate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

May 31  14:30  Sweden 

Jun 04  10:00  Norway 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan  Jun 05  09:30 

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *