EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 28 – June 1, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees). 

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
  • Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF  closed the week at 1.2011 continued its private battle this week between the euro bears and the SNB with the 1.20 line in the sand it is not likely we will see any action. This week the pair hardly moved and had no correlation to world events.

Highest: 1.2076

Lowest: 1.2006

Difference: 0.0070

Average: 1.2013

Change %: -0.01

The pair did jump to an unexpected high midweek, which held for just a short time, after the SNB announced the possibility of some bank action and some banking fees. After the announcement the markets returned to their tight range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Major Economic Events for the week of May 21-25 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and the Franc

Currency

 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

GBP

CPI y/y

3.0%

3.1%

3.5%

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

-18.8B

-8.5B

14.6B

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

0-0-9

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

-2.3%

-0.8%

2.0%

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.0

47.1

46.2

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

106.9

109.4

109.9

GBP

Revised GDP q/q

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.2%

  

Historical:

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.0083 CHF on 9 Aug 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 28

28th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

-0.2%

May 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

May 30

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.40

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

3.2%

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.4B

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-31

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estímate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

 

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