EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2014 Forecast

eurjpy thursday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is flat this morning at 137.31 well below its trading range above the 141 level, as the JPY continues to hold strong on risk aversion. The euro remains weak ahead of today’s European Central Bank meeting, where Mario Draghi is expected to push the bank to negative interest rates only 3 months after assuring markets that this would not happen. Most euro traders are expecting some action from the ECB to help lift inflation and push the eurozone towards growth. The strength of the euro as of late has been artificial due to the US FOMC tapering decisions and the strength has had a strong effect on eurozone exports.

Most major currencies stuck to fairly narrow ranges ahead of key event risks, namely the ECB’s policy decision due later on Thursday and U.S. jobs data on Friday. Speculation that the ECB may be forced to ease monetary policy further to ward off the threat of deflation has weighed on the euro recently, although most money market traders polled by Reuters expect no imminent action from the ECB, believing the central bank would rather wait.

Data released last week showed that annual inflation in the currency bloc slowed to 0.7 percent in January, well below the ECB’s target of just under 2 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Data February 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 06

 

JPY

 

 

Foreign Bonds Buying 

-1815.8B

 

 

 

-357.0B 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.4% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

0.468B

 

-0.300B 

 

0.083B 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

8.00

 

 

 

5.00 

   

 

 

TWD

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

0.76%

 

0.70% 

 

0.34% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Exports (MoM) 

4%

 

 

 

0% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Imports (MoM) 

2%

 

 

 

-1% 

   

 EURJPY(15 minutes)20140206070042

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 07

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

 

50.9

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

185K

74K

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

188K

87K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Feb 07 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 16:30 Italy

Feb 10 10:03 Sweden

Feb 10 10:30 Germany

Feb 10 16:30 Italy

Feb 11 09:10 Holland

Feb 11 10:00 Norway

Feb 11 10:03 Sweden

Feb 11 10:30 Belgium

Feb 11 10:30 UK

Feb 11 18:00 US

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *