Growing Euro notes arrows over the flag of European Union.

European Equities: Consumer Spending, Unemployment, and Inflation in Focus

Economic Calendar

Wednesday, 30th June

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (May)

French CPI y/y (Jun) Prelim

German Unemployment Change (Jun)

German Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Italian CPI (MoM) (Jun) Prelim

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun) Prelim

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) Prelim

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jun) Prelim

Thursday, 1st July

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

French Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Final

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (May)

Friday, 2nd July

German Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

The Majors

It was a relatively bullish day for the European majors on Tuesday.

The DAX30 led the way, rising by 0.88%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 0.14% and 0.31% respectively.

A pickup in consumer confidence and economic sentiment in the Eurozone delivered support, with softer inflation figures from Germany also market positive.

From the U.S, a marked pickup in consumer confidence added further support to the majors late in the day.

Concerns over the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus continued to limit the upside, however.

The Stats

Inflation and economic sentiment figures were in focus on the day.

According to prelim figures, German consumer prices increased by 0.4% in June, which was in line with forecasts. In May, consumer prices had risen by 0.5%.

As a result, Germany’s annual rate of inflation softened from 2.5% to 2.3%.

For the Eurozone, consumer sentiment increased from -5.1 to -3.3 in June, which was in line with prelim figures.

Sentiment towards the economy was also on the rise. The Eurozone’s economic sentiment indicator increased from 114.5 to 117.9. Economists had forecast an increase to 116.5

From the U.S

Consumer confidence was also in focus. In June, the CB Consumer Confidence Index rose from 120.0 to 127.3. Economists had forecast an increase to 119.0.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental ended the day up by 1.02%, with Volkswagen and Daimler rising by 0.68% and by 0.30% respectively. BMW eked out a 0.01% gain on the day.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.62%, while Commerzbank ended the day down by 0.44%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rose by 0.70%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen seeing gains of 1.53% and 1.27% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV slipped by 0.01%, while Renault ended the day up by 1.12%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE saw losses of 0.43% and 0.58% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Tuesday.

Following a 0.90% gain on Monday, the VIX rose by 1.65% to end the day at 16.02.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.19%, with the Dow and the S&P500 both ending the day up by 0.03% respectively.

VIX 300621 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. French consumer spending and German unemployment figures are due out along with inflation figures for the Eurozone.

While consumer spending is key, expect German unemployment and Eurozone inflation figures to have a greater impact on the majors.

Another marked pickup in inflationary pressures could bring into question the willingness of the ECB to stand pat on policy.

Unemployment figures from Germany will also be key. A rise in unemployment would weigh on spending and test market optimism towards the economic outlook.

From the U.S, ADP nonfarm employment change figures will also provide direction late in the European session.

Ahead of the European open, private sector PMIs from China will set the tone.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 33 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.