Monday, 7th June
German Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr)
Tuesday, 8th June
German Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
German ZEW Current Conditions (Jun)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Final
Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q1) Final
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
Wednesday, 9th June
German Trade Balance (Apr)
Thursday, 10th June
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1)
ECB Interest Rate Decision / Press Conference
Friday, 11th June
Spanish CPI (YoY) (May) Final
Spanish HICP (YoY) (May) Final
It was a relatively bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.
The DAX and the EuroStoxx600 rose by 0.39% and by 0.37% respectively, with the CAC40 gaining 0.12%.
While disappointing economic data from the Eurozone pegged the majors back, it was stats from the U.S that provided direction.
A pickup in wage growth and rise in nonfarm payrolls delivered support. For the FED, a more modest rise than the ADP numbers from Thursday may have eased pressure for a more immediate move. This was also a positive for riskier assets, with market angst over the need for an immediate move by the FED easing for now.
It was a quieter day on the economic data front. Eurozone retail sales figures were in focus.
In April, retail sales fell by 3.1%, month-on-month, reversing most of a 3.3% increase from March. Economists had forecast a more modest 1.2% decline.
According to Eurostat,
- The volume of retail trade decreased by 5.1% for non-food products and by 2.0% for food, drinks, & tobacco.
- There was a 0.4% increase in automotive fuel sales, however.
- Slovenia (-10.4%) and France (-6.0%) logged the largest declines in April.
- Portugal (+4.3%), Latvia (+3.8%), and Lithuania (+3.7%) recorded the largest increases in April.
- Compared with April 2020, retail trade had jumped by 23.9%.
- Year-on-year, automotive fuel sales surged by 65.5%, non-food products by 42.6%, and food, drinks & tobacco by a modest 3.3%.
- Luxembourg (+46.1%) and France (+42.1%) recorded the highest annual increases in retail trade.
From the U.S
It was a busier day on the economic calendar, however.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 559k in May, falling well short of the ADP’s figures. Economists had forecast a 650k increase following April’s modest 278k rise.
A fall in the participation rate and increase in payrolls supported a fall in the unemployment rate.
In May, the U.S unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%. This was not enough to continue supporting tapering bets, however.
The Market Movers
For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Friday. BMW rose by 0.96% to buck the trend. Continental slipped by 0.06%, with Daimler and Volkswagen ending the day down by 0.40% and by 0.46% respectively.
It was a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day with losses of 0.81% and 1.09% respectively.
From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen fell by 0.57% and by 0.86% respectively, while Credit Agricole rose by 0.32%.
It was a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rallied by 2.80%, while Renault fell by 1.95%.
Air France-KLM followed Thursday’s 4.64% slide with a 2.43% loss, while Airbus SE eked out a 0.13% gain.
On the VIX Index
It was back into the red for the VIX on Friday, marking just a 2nd fall in 5 sessions.
Reversing a 3.20% gain from Thursday, the VIX fell by 8.98% to end the day at 16.42.
The NASDAQ rallied by 1.47%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the day up by 0.52% and by 0.88% respectively.
The Day Ahead
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic data front.
German factory orders for April will provide the European majors with direction early in the session.
Solid manufacturing PMI figures suggest a continued pickup in factory orders. An unexpected fall would, therefore, test market optimism on the day. Economists have forecast a 1.0% rise.
From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide the European majors with direction later in the day.
The lack of stats will leave FOMC chatter and updates on Biden’s infrastructure spending plan in focus.
From earlier in the day, trade data from China will set the tone.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 11 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.