European Equities: Economic Sentiment Figures and COVID-19 Updates in Focus

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, 10th August

ZEW German Economic Sentiment Index AUG

ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index AUG

Wednesday, 11th August

German Inflation Rate YoY Final JUL

Italian Inflation Rate YoY Final JUL

Thursday, 12th August

Eurozone Industrial Production YoY JUN

Eurozone Industrial Production MoM JUN

Friday, 13th August

France Inflation Rate YoY Final JUL

Eurozone Balance of Trade JUN

The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Monday.

The CAC40 and the DAX30 fell by 0.06% and by 0.10% respectively, while the EuroStoxx600 ended the day up by 0.15%.

Economic data from Germany and the U.S impressed but failed to support the majors on the day.

Concerns over the continued spread of the Delta variant weighed on the majors, however, which struggled for direction.

The Stats

Economic data was on the lighter side once more on Monday, with trade data from Germany in focus.

In June, Germany’s trade surplus widened from €12.3bn to €16.3bn. Economists had forecast a widening to €16.8bn.

According to Destatis,

  • Exports increased 1.3%, month-on-month, to €118.7bn.
    • Germany exported goods to the value of €64.5bn to EU member states. Exports were up 26.1% when compared with June 2020.
    • With non-EU countries, exports of goods increased 20.7% to €54.1bn, when compared with June 2020.
  • Imports rose by 0.6% on the previous month to €102.4bn.
    • From EU member states, Germany imported goods to the value of €54.9bn.
    • Compared with June 2020, imports from EU member states were up 22.1%.
    • Imports from non-EU member states increased by 33.0% to €47.5bn, when compared with June 2020.

From the U.S

It was a quiet day on the economic calendar following Friday’s impressive nonfarm payroll figures.

JOLTs job openings for June were in focus late in the European session.

Openings jumped from 9.483m to 10.073m, coming in well ahead of a forecasted fall to 9.00m.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Monday. Daimler slid by 1.62% to lead the way down, with Volkswagen falling 0.63%. BMW and Continental ended the day with modest losses of 0.21% and 0.16% respectively, however.

It was a bullish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.16%, with Commerzbank rallying by 2.54%.

From the CAC, it was a relatively bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rose by 0.39%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen gaining 0.05% and 0.20% respectively.

It a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rose by 0.68%, while Renault slid by 2.01%.

Air France-KLM slipped by 0.64%, with Airbus SE ended the day down by 1.83%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green for the VIX on Monday, ending a run of 4 consecutive days in the red.

Partially reversing a 6.54% decline on Friday, the VIX rose by 3.53% to end the day at 16.72.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.16%, while the Dow and the S&P500 ended the day down by 0.30% and by 0.09% respectively.

VIX 100821 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for August will in focus in the early part of the European session.

We’ve seen increased sensitivity to the ZEW numbers of late. Expect a fall in line with or worse than forecasts to test support for the majors.

From the U.S, unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity figures for the 2nd quarter will be in focus. We don’t expect the numbers to influence, however, with the markets now looking beyond 2nd quarter data.

Away from the economic calendar, central bank chatter and COVID-19 news updates will also influence.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 1 point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.