Cac 40 positive.

European Equities: German Trade Data in Focus Following Weak Stats From Early in the Week

Economic Calendar

Wednesday, 9th June

German Trade Balance (Apr)

Thursday, 10th June

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1)

ECB Interest Rate Decision / Press Conference

Friday, 11th June

Spanish CPI (YoY) (May) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (May) Final

The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Tuesday.

The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 rose by 0.11% and by 0.10% respectively, while the DAX30 fell by 0.23%.

Economic data from Germany weighed on the DAX30, while market optimism and expectations of unwavering ECB support continued to provide support.

The Stats

It was a busier day on the economic data front. German industrial production figures along with ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for the Eurozone and Germany were also in focus.

In April, production fell by 1.0% partially reversing a 2.2% increase in March. Economists had forecast a modest 0.5% rise.

According to Destatis,

  • Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 0.7%.
  • Within industry, the production of consumer goods slid 3.3%, while the production of intermediate goods fell by 0.2%.
  • The production of capital goods fell by a modest 0.1%.
  • Outside industry, energy production was up by 6.0% in the month, while production in construction declined by 4.3%.
  • While down in the month, production was up 26.4% on the same month a year earlier.
  • Compared with February 2020, however, production in April 2021 was 5.6% lower.

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures showed a marginal decline in optimism.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 84.4 to 79.8. Economists had forecast a rise to 86.0.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 84.0 to 81.3.

Finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers for the Eurozone were also out. Upward revisions provided support to the broader market on the day.

In the 1st quarter, the Eurozone economy contracted by 0.3%, revised up from a 0.6% contraction. Year-on-year, the economy contacted by 1.3%, revised up from a 1.8% contraction.

From the U.S

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar.

JOLT’s job openings and trade data provided the majors with direction later in the day. Openings increased from 8.288m to 9.286m in April.

In April, the U.S trade deficit narrowed from $75.00bn to $68.90bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $69.0bn.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Volkswagen slid by 2.24% to lead the way down, with Continental and Daimler and ending the day down by 0.55% and by 0.92% respectively. BMW fell by a more modest 0.22%.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day with losses of 0.78% and 1.32% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen fell by 1.55% and by 1.59% respectively, with Credit Agricole declining by 1.84%.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV rose by 0.13%, while Renault fell by 0.10%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE both ended the day down by 0.74%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green for the VIX on Tuesday.

After ending the day flat on Monday, the VIX rose by 3.96% to end the day at $17.07

The Dow fell by 0.09%, while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 ended the day up by 0.31% and by 0.02% respectively.

VIX 090621 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a quieter day ahead on the European economic calendar.

German trade data is due out later this morning. With little else for the majors to focus on, we can expect plenty of interest in the numbers.

Expect any weak export figures to test support for the majors and the DAX in particular after weaker stats from early in the week.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to influence late in the session, leaving chatter from Capitol Hill in focus.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 2 points, while the DAX was up by 4 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.