EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 10 points as the US dollar recovered and traders reevaluate the situation in the eurozone. It looks like the EU is heading toward a recession and deflation. The euro traded lower by 0.6 percent in the last week as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi deepened his commitment to stimulus and signaled policy makers are ready to implement additional measures if needed. Further, strength in the dollar along with unfavorable economic data from the region exerted downside pressure on the currency. German Industrial Production grew by 1.4 percent in September as against a plunge of 3.1 percent a month ago. German Trade Balance was at 18.5 billion Euros in September from 17.5 billion Euros in August. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 4.7 billion Euros in September with respect to 5 billion Euros in prior month.  The European Central Bank could examine the possibility of buying state bonds, a senior ECB policy maker said on Monday, saying that the bloc’s recovery and that of its top economy, Germany, has lost pace.

Speaking to an audience near Stuttgart in Germany, Executive Board member Yves Mersch voiced concerns about the “critical” state of the euro zone’s sluggish recovery and conceded that the ECB buying government debt was a theoretical possibility. Germany is teetering on the brink of a recession due to weakness in major emerging trading partners; the head of the influential Ifo economic research institute said on Monday, four days before the release of third quarter gross domestic product data.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Current Account

0.41T

0.03T

0.13T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a.

0.963T

0.534T

0.287T

 

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales

0.0%

-0.5%

-2.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

House Price Index

1.5%

1.6%

1.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Bus. Confidence

4

 

5

 

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov. Wheeler  

 

 

 

 

 EURUSD(60 minutes)20141111101707

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

 

  AUD

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

 

0.6%

0.6%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Kocherlakota 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Plosser

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index

 

0.9%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-24.9K

-18.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

 

5.9%

6.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production

 

1.0%

-1.8%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov. Carney  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Kocherlakota 

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Oct)

 

 

58.

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Nov 11 07:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Nov 12

Nov 11 10:00 Norway Bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Feb & Nov 2015)

Nov 12 10:03 Sweden Sek 3.5bn 3.75% Aug 2017 Bond

Nov 12 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Nov 12 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Dec 2016 Schatz auction

Nov 12 10:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Nov 12 18:00 US Usd 24bn 10 year Note auction

Nov 13 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Nov 13 10:30 UK Gbp 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Nov 13 18:00 US Usd 16bn 30 year Note auction

Nov 17 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction

Nov 18 09:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Nov 18 10:00 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn 2018 & Eur 0.15bn 2017 bonds

Nov 19 15:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Nov 26

Nov 20 09:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Nov 20 10:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Nov 20 10:30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Nov 25

Nov 21 16:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Nov 26

 

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