When the ECB adopted negative interest rates in June 2014, the EUR/USD was located at highs of 1.3694 then traded to 1.0346 lows or 3348 pips by June 2017 on a continuation of deeper negative rates. The 1674 mid rate from 3348 then placed EUR/USD at 1.2020 from 1.0346 and EUR/USD accomplished this mission in January 2021 or 4 years later from 2017.
Not only is 1.2020 a vital average in the long term model to forecast a much lower EUR on a break but EUR/USD performed far better on the downside than its current rise since 2017.
The 0.0837 mid rate from 0.1674 places EUR/USD longer term at 1.1541 from 1.2351 and 1.1787 from the 14 year average at 1.2624. The mid rate from 1.2624 to 1.0346 lows still places EUR/USD at 1.1485.
Highlighted and presented by examples in previous articles, all EUR/USD trends reverse to satisfy EUR/USD’s purpose as a neutral currency.
As forecast August 2020 when EUR/USD traded at 1.1800’s, the EUR/USD would complete its target at 1.2351 and EUR/USD traded to highs at 12363 at the same time DXY indicated and achieved 89.22 lows. To respectfully inform readers on a side bar note, many long term targets to 5 , 7 and 1000 pips were forecast and completed publicly over the past many years.
Current EUR/USD trades between 1.2106 and 1.2624 and a mid rate remains now at 1.2365. EUR/USD’s average at 1.2624 is dropping by the week while 1.2106 at the 10 year average and 1.1386 at the 5 year remain stasis. While EUR/USD’s weekly range also drops by the week, EUR will be extremely lucky to complete a 100 pip rise.
As 1.2106 and 1.2020 eventually break lower then 1.2624, 1.2106 and 1.2020 will continue its long term drop simultaneously to a much lower EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Weekly Trade
As posted Sunday for the weekly trade to reiterate, Short 1.2169 and 1.2176 to target 1.2065.
The 18 Weekly trades offered and traded every week for many years, most vital levels are provided to not only follow the trades but to allow traders to take profits anywhere along the price path.
EUR/USD”s weekly levels are displayed as follows: 1.2142, 1.2115, 1.2088 and 1.2075. Most vital from today’s prices is 1.2154 and any price above begins overbought and a short only strategy.
As EUR/USD is traded twice daily from Sunday to Friday or 10 trades per week, dailies offer the ability to profit from not only extra pips but daily trade forecasts are timed perfectly to weekly entry prices.
EUR/USD’s upside target today is located at 1.2199 on a break of 1.2168. Today’s 1.2168 coincides perfectly to the weekly entry at 1.2169 and 1.2176. The only upside levels from 1.2168 exist at 1.2175, 1.2183 and 1.2191.
EUR/USD’s highs this week achieved 1.2164 or 46 pips from the close at 1.2118. Its a matter of time before EUR embarks on a long term trend lower.
Overall, deeply oversold CAD/ZAR as EUR/USD’s perfect USD opposite currency pair and an early alert forecasts a target of 12.24 on a break of 11.82. CAD/ZAR currently trades at 11.43 and 39 pips from its vital MA.. A break of 11.43 signifies not only a lower EUR but a convincing rise and reversal to USD.