EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 10, 2015

Daily EUR/USD Technical Analysis


The EUR/USD is trading sharply lower at the mid-session. There wasn’t any bad news earlier in the day, the sell-off continues to reflect the divergence between the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The catalyst behind the selling pressure continues to be Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The price action suggests investors are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will drop its reference to being “patient” from its statement at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18. This would indicate a possible rate hike as early as June.

Technically, the market traded through the September 2003 bottom at 1.0765. This price is now resistance. Overcoming this level will indicate that the sell-off has exhausted itself. This could help create a support base which may eventually fuel a short-covering rally into a steep downtrending angle from the 1.1449 top. This angle is at 1.0929 today and is dropping .004 per day.

The next downside target is the September 2002 bottom at .9607. Since it is so far off, there is basically no support which means investors have to watch for a bottoming chart pattern rather than a particular price level.

Hourly EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Hourly EUR/USD
Hourly EUR/USD

The main trend is down on the hourly chart. Earlier in the session, the September 2003 bottom at 1.0765 was taken out. This price is new resistance. Overtaking it will mean that the last sell-off was likely triggered by sell stops rather than fresh shorting.

The current range is 1.0862 to 1.0734. If the EUR/USD can build as support base near the bottom then look for more short-covering. If it creates enough upside momentum to overcome 1.0765 then look for the move to extend into its retracement zone at 1.0798 to 1.0813.

The tone of the market the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to 1.0765. 

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.

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