Gold and precious metals have rallied sharply since their March liquidation lows. Price momentum and bullish sentiment are now at extremes. We believe gold could form a temporary peak any day and begin a sharp multi-week correction.
The gold mining ETF (GDX) often leads gold prices into significant turning points (intermediate tops and bottoms). The current trend in GDX is slowing, and we are beginning to see signs of exhaustion.
GDX UPDATE: Last Thursday, GDX closed below its recent price gap, inferring trend exhaustion. Yesterday’s black candle is another potential ominous sign. Any close below Wednesday’s low ($44.02), would establish a short-term sell signal.
GOLD NEAR-TERM PRICE LEVELS
Any close back below $2000 in the coming days would support a spike high and temporary peak in gold. If a top is confirmed, we see the potential for a sharp correction to $1750 with a 30% chance of revisiting $1670.
Our intermediate Gold Cycle Indicator reached a max overbought reading for 450. The next buy signal won’t arrive until it drops back into minimum bottoming. In March, it reached a perfect buy score of zero.
I see the potential for increased volatility this week, especially surrounding Friday’s employment report – extreme caution is warranted.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.